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Third, and related, McFaul's analysis of Putin's Ukraine policy overlooks that Russia has repeatedly meddled in Ukrainian domestic affairs since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Moreover, the article's failure to mention this episode raises questions about McFaul's criteria for collecting and evaluating empirical material-criteria he never clearly explicates. 4 Churkin's proposal for crafting a Syrian peace settlement shows that the Kremlin was not wedded to keeping Assad in power, at least not in the early stages of the civil war, as McFaul's account suggests. The Barack Obama administration, however, ignored the proposal, convinced that Assad would soon fall. In 2012, Vitaly Churkin, Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, proposed a peace plan for Syria, which included the condition that Assad would step down and be replaced by an interim government. In fact, Moscow initially pursued this track. For example, McFaul writes, “Imagine … a counterfactual in which Russia mediated a political settlement in Syria between the ancien régime and the opposition, in which Assad departed, but many pro-Russian actors of the Assad regime stayed in the government” (p. Second, the article's account of Russia's Syrian policy is not on solid empirical grounds. 3 These examples run directly counter to McFaul's central argument, and they demonstrate the lack of representativeness of the selected cases. In 2010, for instance, Russia aided the overthrow of Kurmanbek Bakiyev's authoritarian regime in Kyrgyzstan. Likewise, Russia's relations with other authoritarian governments are not always amicable-far from it. 2 For a leader supposedly deeply terrified by protest-driven change and pro-democracy uprisings, Putin showed curious restraint. Instead, Putin adopted a wait-and-see policy and, after Sargasyan's resignation, established cordial relations with the new government in Yerevan.
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Thus, according to McFaul's thesis, Putin should have provided assistance to the Sargasyan regime to crack down on the protesters. The opposition made it clear that its ambition was to move the country in a more democratic direction. In May 2018, a wave of street protests erupted in Yerevan, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Serzh Sargasyan, who had been in power for ten years. Consider, for example, Russia's response to the Velvet Revolution in Armenia. In effect, he omits cases in which Russia abstained from intervention-although Putin's anti-liberal mindset would have pushed him to interfere. By exploring only cases of Russian interventionism (e.g., Syria and Ukraine), McFaul is selecting on the dependent variable. On closer inspection, however, it fails to convince for four reasons.įirst, the article's research design is flawed.
Thus, while McFaul recognizes that power and regime-type variables affect Russia's international behavior, the heavy causal lifting is done by Putin's illiberal conservatism and anti-Western mindset. Similarly, Russia's increasingly authoritarian political system serves as a permissive condition, concentrating decisionmaking authority in the hands of Putin (pp. In particular, he stresses that the balance of power enables Putin to pursue a confrontational foreign policy, but the balance of power does not motivate or cause his actions (pp. To be clear, McFaul acknowledges that other factors influence Russian behavior as well.
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1 The core argument is straightforward: President Vladimir Putin's illiberal worldviews are a major driver of Russia's international behavior. Michael McFaul's article “Putin, Putinism, and the Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy” is well timed and likely to play a big role in shaping the debate about contemporary Russian foreign policy.